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After the consensus narrative ends.
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OpenMar 10, 2026
The Hormuz closure is a structural break, not a historical analog — the market is using the wrong map
Three simultaneous features distinguish this crisis from every prior oil shock: no swing producer outside the disruption, an actuarial (not kinetic) closure mechanism with a quarter-scale reopening lag, and a storage countdown that converts logistics shock to upstream supply destruction past Day 25. The consensus $70 year-end price baseline is built on analogies that don't apply.
Wrong if: The Strait reopens to commercial shipping at scale before March 24, OR the DFC reinsurance backstop produces verified VLCC transits at scale by March 19, OR the IEA coordinated release suppresses Brent below $90 for 60 consecutive days
OpenFeb 14, 2025
The AI infrastructure buildout is pricing in a demand curve that doesn't exist yet
Capex is running years ahead of enterprise adoption. The gap gets papered over until it doesn't.
Wrong if: Enterprise AI spend accelerates past $200B annually by Q4 2025
OpenJan 10, 2025
The dollar's reserve currency status is being eroded faster than the market prices
The structural shift away from dollar-denominated trade settlement is real and accelerating. The market is pricing this as a long-run story. It may be a medium-run one.
Wrong if: Dollar share of global central bank reserves increases above 62% over any 12-month period
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