Working Hypothesis
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They Kept the Flag, They Took the Assets Revolutionary regimes don't stay revolutionary — they become oligarchies. The mechanism is consistent across Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and China: bribe the enforcement arm with economic turf, and the ideology becomes a communications strategy.
Markets/macro Mar 30, 2026
FanDuel Is Not a Transit Agency Pennsylvania collects enough in sports betting taxes to close SEPTA's structural gap. None of it goes to transit. The governor's fix was to raid capital funds instead. This is what 44 years of federal doctrine produces.
Culture/society/ideas Mar 22, 2026
Who Sold You This? Private credit promised Main Street a seat at the institutional table. The system connecting a factory worker in Albion, Illinois to a retail investor who bought a 'semi-liquid' fund reveals how the asset class transferred risk at the exact moment it became hardest to see. First Brands Group Champion BDCs
Markets/macro Mar 22, 2026
The Last Conspiracy David Grimes' formula showed that conspiracy surface area was the detection mechanism for institutional-scale fraud. AI is removing it.
AI/tech Mar 12, 2026
The consensus machine and how to get out in front of it Every market narrative follows the same arc. The edge is in knowing where you are in the cycle.
Markets/macro Mar 1, 2025
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Eight Failures and a Raise — Investor Companion
Subscriber
The $480 billion in new Pentagon procurement is not a 'defense spending is up, buy defense stocks' story — that trade is done. What's less priced in is what happens when a $1.5 trillion budget flows into a department with no audit condition and a weakened watchdog.
Markets/macro Apr 23, 2026
Eight Failures and a Raise The Pentagon has failed its financial audit eight consecutive years. The proposed response is a $1.5 trillion defense budget — the largest single-year increase since the Korean War. The enforcement gap making this possible has been bipartisan-acknowledged and structurally unaddressed for 35 years.
Markets/macro Apr 17, 2026
The Captive Buyer Trade
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The investor case for watching Spire Global's government contract revenue as a leading indicator of public data infrastructure privatization — and the terminal acquisition wave that follows if the captive buyer dynamic accelerates.
Markets/macro Apr 4, 2026
The Classified Alpha The insider trading pattern on Polymarket is not a series of isolated compliance failures. It is the predictable output of a platform architecture that rewards anyone who can move price before public information resolves — including people whose information advantage comes from classified briefings.
Markets/macro Apr 4, 2026