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They Kept the Flag, They Took the Assets Revolutionary regimes don't stay revolutionary — they become oligarchies. The mechanism is consistent across Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and China: bribe the enforcement arm with economic turf, and the ideology becomes a communications strategy.
Markets/macro Mar 30, 2026
FanDuel Is Not a Transit Agency Pennsylvania collects enough in sports betting taxes to close SEPTA's structural gap. None of it goes to transit. The governor's fix was to raid capital funds instead. This is what 44 years of federal doctrine produces.
Culture/society/ideas Mar 22, 2026
Who Sold You This? Private credit promised Main Street a seat at the institutional table. The system connecting a factory worker in Albion, Illinois to a retail investor who bought a 'semi-liquid' fund reveals how the asset class transferred risk at the exact moment it became hardest to see. First Brands Group Champion BDCs
Markets/macro Mar 22, 2026
The Last Conspiracy David Grimes' formula showed that conspiracy surface area was the detection mechanism for institutional-scale fraud. AI is removing it.
AI/tech Mar 12, 2026
The consensus machine and how to get out in front of it Every market narrative follows the same arc. The edge is in knowing where you are in the cycle.
Markets/macro Mar 1, 2025
Recent All Writing →
What Zillow Can't Show You — Investor Companion
Subscriber
What a prime-cohort housing stress event looks like for portfolios — and why the policy tools designed to catch it are calibrated for the wrong crisis.
Markets/macro May 25, 2026
Paying BNPL First Buy now, pay later's clean balance sheet is a measurement artifact — produced by a reporting architecture that keeps this debt invisible to every other lender, sustained by borrower behavior that prioritizes these payments above everything else.
Markets/macro May 25, 2026
What Zillow Can't Show You The housing market's two most-cited data sources — the MBA delinquency rate and MLS-reported inventory — are structurally incomplete in the same Sunbelt markets where prime-cohort stress is building.
Markets/macro May 25, 2026
Emergency Powers The Supreme Court’s emergency docket does most of the immediate separation-of-powers work now, while the public reform debate chases supermajority fantasies. That mismatch is not an accident.
Culture/society/ideas May 12, 2026