Working Hypothesis

Most market and technology commentary hedges everything. The analysis is right until it isn't. The prediction has seventeen caveats. Nothing is ever actually wrong because nothing is ever actually stated.

Working Hypothesis is different. Every thesis published here comes with an explicit falsification condition — a statement of exactly what would prove it wrong. The scorecard tracks whether those theses hold up over time.

This is a discipline as much as a publication. The act of writing down what would change your mind forces you to have a view instead of a vibe. It makes the reasoning legible. And it creates accountability over time.

The format

Pieces are analytical essays on Markets/macro, AI/tech, and culture/society/ideas. They're thesis-driven: each one argues a specific claim and connects to the scorecard when appropriate.

The lens is second-order effects — the consequences that follow from what the consensus narrative assumes away.

The scorecard is public and permanent. Confirmed theses stay. Falsified theses stay. The track record is the product.

Cadence is 2–4 pieces per month.

The model

This is a founding reader model. The first 700 subscribers get free access permanently — even after a paid tier launches. After that, access may require a subscription.

Email delivery runs through Substack. The canonical reading experience lives here.

Contact

Reply to any piece directly. Or reach out at hello@workinghypothesis.com.