Working Hypothesis
George B. is a business consultant and CPA with a background in corporate finance, organizational psychology, and self-taught software engineering. He writes Working Hypothesis to develop and track forward-looking theses at the intersection of markets, AI, and the broader structural forces most commentary notices too late.
Most market and technology commentary hedges everything. The analysis is right until it isn't. The prediction has seventeen caveats. Nothing is ever actually wrong because nothing is ever actually stated.
Working Hypothesis is different. Every thesis published here comes with an explicit falsification condition — a statement of exactly what would prove it wrong. The scorecard tracks whether those theses hold up over time.
This is a discipline as much as a publication. The act of writing down what would change your mind forces you to have a view instead of a vibe. It makes the reasoning legible. And it creates accountability over time.
The format
Pieces are analytical essays on Markets/macro, AI/tech, and culture/society/ideas. They're thesis-driven: each one argues a specific claim and connects to the scorecard when appropriate.
The lens is second-order effects — the consequences that follow from what the consensus narrative assumes away.
The scorecard is public and permanent. Confirmed theses stay. Falsified theses stay. The track record is the product.
Cadence is 2–4 pieces per month.
The model
The first 777 subscribers read everything, forever, at no cost. Not as a promotion. As a discipline. Before any decisions are made about what this publication becomes — what gets gated, what the long-term model looks like — the goal is to know who actually shows up.
Email delivery runs through Substack. The canonical reading experience lives here.
Contact
Reply to any piece directly. Or reach out at hello@workinghypothesis.com.