Scorecard

The post-OBBBA pipeline collapse is not a gradual slowdown but a concentrated step-down in 2028–2029. The pre-OBBBA pipe…

The White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge (March 4, 2026) cannot resolve a capacity shortfall driven by timeline physi…

Three simultaneous features distinguish this crisis from every prior oil shock: no swing producer outside the disruption…

Capex is running years ahead of enterprise adoption. The gap gets papered over until it doesn't.

The dollar's reserve currency status is being eroded faster than the market prices

The structural shift away from dollar-denominated trade settlement is real and accelerating. The market is pricing this…

The private credit boom ends with a liquidity crisis, not a credit event

Direct lending structures create illiquidity mismatches that won't surface until a redemption cycle hits. The consensus…