Scorecard

Every thesis, tracked.

Right or wrong — on the record.

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Success rate

100%

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Thesis	Date	Status	Read
BNPL's clean balance sheet is a measurement artifact — stress is displaced to reporting instruments, not absent Buy now, pay later charge-off rates are falling while adjacent instruments (subprime auto delinquenc…	May 25, 2026	Open	→
The headline housing data is structurally incomplete in the same Sunbelt markets where prime-cohort stress is building The MBA's National Delinquency Survey covers only the agency universe; the non-agency RMBS market ($…	May 25, 2026	Open	→
Prime Jumbo 30-day delinquency in Fitch's RMBS Performance Monitor will exceed 1.5% by Q4 2026 Fitch's Q1 2026 RMBS Performance Monitor shows Prime Jumbo 30-day delinquency at 1.09%, up 22 basis…	May 25, 2026	Open	→
Shadow Docket Volume Reflects Incentive-Stable Power Ratchet, Not Accidental Drift Emergency applications to the Supreme Court have become the default instrument for national policy p…	May 12, 2026	Open	→
Housing affordability policy in wealthy countries systematically selects for demand subsidies while preserving supply constraints, driven by homeowner political economy Tracks whether the pattern of demand-subsidy-first, supply-reform-last policy selection continues in…	May 11, 2026	Open	→
SpaceX IPO structure — constrained float, fast index entry, and 3x weighting multiplier — converts passive index mechanics into an engineered demand channel Tracks whether the combination of SpaceX's constrained public float, Nasdaq's Fast Entry rule (effec…	May 10, 2026	Open	→
Housing affordability policy in wealthy countries systematically selects for demand-side interventions that preserve existing asset values over supply reforms that would reduce them Tracks whether the pattern of demand-side policy selection (buyer credits, inclusionary zoning, down…	May 10, 2026	Open	→
The Manus unwind order is used as negotiable leverage, with material compliance-status movement within 30 days of the May 14-15 summit This thesis tracks whether Beijing's unwind order behaves like doctrinal end-state enforcement or a…	May 7, 2026	Open	→
High-cost OECD countries keep selecting transfer-first pronatalism while avoiding housing and childcare supply interventions, limiting sustained fertility recovery Tracks whether transfer-heavy pronatalist policy continues to dominate despite weak long-run fertili…	May 7, 2026	Open	→
A constrained SpaceX float plus fast index inclusion drives sustained passive-demand dislocation before discretionary normalization Tracks whether float management and index methodology create recurrent passive-demand pressure incon…	May 7, 2026	Open	→
Trump Account founder-stock donation expansion creates a three-part value loop: tax bypass, deduction, and cap-weighted flow feedback Tracks whether proposed stock-donation expansion is enacted with full charitable treatment and retai…	May 7, 2026	Open	→
No Federal Data-Stewardship Package (Independent Audit + Non-Admission Notification) by 2028 By December 2028, Congress does not enact legislation that pairs (a) an executive-independent forens…	May 4, 2026	Open	→
No Completed US-CERT Report or Restored NLRB Logs for March 2025 Window by 2028 Through December 2028, the federal government does not publish a completed US-CERT or successor CISA…	May 4, 2026	Open	→
No Verified Destruction or Notification Mandate for DOGE-Era SSA Data by 2028 Through December 2028, SSA does not publish independent third-party verification accounting for and…	May 4, 2026	Open	→
Prediction-market rulemaking will lean on an expansion-tilted comment record rather than the peer-reviewed empirical core the ANPRM requested The ANPRM asked quantitative, falsifiable questions; the docket filled fastest with operator and law…	May 4, 2026	Open	→
Post-2011 SSN randomization keeps synthetic child-SSN bust-outs structurally likely through ~2032 absent substitute friction Synthetic identity fraud disproportionately exploits clean child SSNs; randomized issuance removed a…	May 4, 2026	Open	→
Dual-channel peptide economics persist: tight domestic compounding plus China-first licensing keeps gray and licensed flows coupled through 2028 Through 2028, U.S. policy does not reopen compounded peptide supply enough to shrink gray-market imp…	May 4, 2026	Open	→
Novo Nordisk Greater China GLP-1 revenue falls ≥15% YoY (CER) in FY 2026 vs FY 2025 If domestic Chinese GLP-1 innovators are eating Western incumbents’ China obesity/diabetes economics…	May 4, 2026	Open	→
401(k) ‘democratized’ private sleeves widen manager access without delivering durable net-of-fee retail outperformance through 2035 Institutional architecture (networks, doctrine, retirement menu design) can produce durable advantag…	May 4, 2026	Open	→
IDEF and ITA underperform the S&P 500 in the 18 months post-reconciliation; Palantir/Kratos/drone tier outperforms both The $1.5 trillion defense budget's conflict premium is already priced into traditional defense prime…	Apr 23, 2026	Open	→
The FY27 reconciliation bill passes without audit-gating language, and the December 2027 Pentagon audit shows 20 or more material weaknesses The $1.5 trillion defense budget is only possible because the 35-year enforcement gap in the CFO Act…	Apr 23, 2026	Open	→
Traditional Defense ETFs Underperform as Conflict Premium Unwinds; Commercial Defense Tier Outperforms The ITA and IDEF ETFs will underperform the S&P 500 over the 18 months following FY27 reconciliation…	Apr 17, 2026	Open	→
The $1.5T Defense Budget Will Pass Without Audit Accountability Conditions The FY27 reconciliation bill will pass without any provision gating defense funds on a specific audi…	Apr 17, 2026	Open	→
Kalshi Media Deals Are Legitimacy Arbitrage, Not Journalism Kalshi's media partnerships with CNN, CNBC, and Dow Jones — executed in a four-month window after da…	Apr 4, 2026	Open	→
Prediction Market Insider Trading Enforcement Gap Persists The pattern of suspicious prediction market trades on classified military events — Venezuela, Iran,…	Apr 4, 2026	Open	→
Public Data Privatization Creates Captive Cost Transfer Defunding public data infrastructure (NOAA, BLS) doesn't eliminate the cost of producing that data —…	Apr 4, 2026	Open	→
Spire Global Government Revenue Accelerates via Captive Buyer Dynamic Spire Global's NOAA contract tripled from $3.8M to $11.1M in a single renewal cycle as DOGE cuts eli…	Apr 4, 2026	Open	→
Burford Capital's U.S. portfolio will show measurably improved metrics following the 2025 UPEPA adoption cohort Anti-SLAPP reform functions as a litigation quality filter: fee-shifting and early dismissal deter m…	Mar 31, 2026	Open	→
The anti-SLAPP protection gap persists where powerful institutional plaintiffs benefit from its absence Ten states remain without functioning anti-SLAPP laws, and their absence isn't random. They share st…	Mar 31, 2026	Open	→
China is a party-corporate conglomerate where CCP membership functions as the toll on economic activity — the anti-corruption campaign redistributes rather than dismantles The CCP controls access to capital formation, senior party relationships provide discounted access t…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Iran is a military-economic oligarchy using theocratic branding — the new Supreme Leader will not demonstrate independent authority over IRGC assets Four entities — EIKO, Astan Quds Razavi, Bonyad Mostazafan, and Khatam al-Anbia — control the majori…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Revolutionary regimes systematically produce oligarchies — the ideology is the legitimating language, the asset map is the government The mechanism that stabilizes revolutionary regimes — bribing an enforcement arm with economic turf…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Russian assets are held on conditional tenure from the state — Putin's succession will not produce genuine transfer of commanding heights to independent governance Russia is the case where oligarchy preceded ideology, exposing the model's logic most cleanly. Asset…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Section 230 repeal is structured as platform entrenchment, not accountability The bipartisan push to repeal Section 230 is framed as holding Big Tech accountable but structurally…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Venezuela is a resource cartel defended by armed loyalty networks — oil production will not recover without genuine structural change Venezuela's oil production collapsed because a military cartel consumed the institution that produce…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Apollo outperforms Blue Owl by at least 20 percentage points (total return) over 12 months from March 2026 The alt manager selloff treated every firm as equally exposed to retail redemption risk. Apollo's pe…	Mar 22, 2026	Open	→
Retail BDC investors in the 2022–2026 vintage will underperform the prior institutional cycle Private credit's retail push transferred risk from institutional to retail investors at the exact mo…	Mar 22, 2026	Open	→
The 2026 federal transportation reauthorization will not restore operating assistance to large transit systems The Reagan-era capital-without-operations transit funding doctrine will survive the 2026 IIJA reauth…	Mar 22, 2026	Open	→
Micron gross margins will exceed 60% for two consecutive quarters in 2026, confirming structural HBM pricing power If the DRAM oligopoly thesis is correct, Micron is the clearest public-market proxy. HBM allocation…	Mar 18, 2026	Open	→
PJM's 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction will clear at more than 2× the 2027/2028 clearing price If the grid capacity cliff thesis is correct, PJM's capacity auctions are the most direct confirmati…	Mar 18, 2026	Open	→
The DRAM price crisis is the predictable output of a legal oligopoly, not a supply shock Three companies control 95% of global DRAM. Their simultaneous pivot to HBM — announced on public ea…	Mar 15, 2026	Open	→
Federal Ethics Architecture Cannot Reach Inbound Conflicts in Time The three federal ethics mechanisms — 18 U.S.C. § 207, state bar Rule 1.11(d), and the executive eth…	Mar 13, 2026	Open	→
AI has collapsed the conspiracy surface area required for institutional-scale attacks to one The historical detection mechanism for large-scale institutional fraud was conspiracy surface area —…	Mar 12, 2026	Open	→
The Ratepayer Protection Pledge will fail to prevent a material PJM capacity shortfall in 2027-2028 The White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge (March 4, 2026) cannot resolve a capacity shortfall driv…	Mar 11, 2026	Open	→
The US grid is heading for a discrete capacity gap beginning in 2028 The post-OBBBA pipeline collapse is not a gradual slowdown but a concentrated step-down in 2028–2029…	Mar 11, 2026	Open	→
The Hormuz closure is a structural break, not a historical analog — the market is using the wrong map Three simultaneous features distinguish this crisis from every prior oil shock: no swing producer ou…	Mar 10, 2026	Open	→
The middle-power coalition moment is real as rhetoric and fictional as strategy Carney's Davos doctrine correctly diagnoses the pathology — bilateral negotiation with hegemons mean…	Jan 20, 2026	Open	→
The AI infrastructure buildout is pricing in a demand curve that doesn't exist yet Capex is running years ahead of enterprise adoption. The gap gets papered over until it doesn't.	Feb 14, 2025	Open	→
The dollar's reserve currency status is being eroded faster than the market prices The structural shift away from dollar-denominated trade settlement is real and accelerating. The mar…	Jan 10, 2025	In Progress
The private credit boom ends with a liquidity crisis, not a credit event Direct lending structures create illiquidity mismatches that won't surface until a redemption cycle…	Nov 20, 2024	Confirmed

Every thesis, tracked.

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