Scorecard

Every thesis, tracked.

Right or wrong — on the record.

Total

Success Rate

100%

 1 of 1 resolved

Open

Thesis	Date	Status	Read
IDEF and ITA underperform the S&P 500 in the 18 months post-reconciliation; Palantir/Kratos/drone tier outperforms both The $1.5 trillion defense budget's conflict premium is already priced into traditional defense prime…	Apr 23, 2026	Open	→
The FY27 reconciliation bill passes without audit-gating language, and the December 2027 Pentagon audit shows 20 or more material weaknesses The $1.5 trillion defense budget is only possible because the 35-year enforcement gap in the CFO Act…	Apr 23, 2026	Open	→
Traditional Defense ETFs Underperform as Conflict Premium Unwinds; Commercial Defense Tier Outperforms The ITA and IDEF ETFs will underperform the S&P 500 over the 18 months following FY27 reconciliation…	Apr 17, 2026	Open	→
The $1.5T Defense Budget Will Pass Without Audit Accountability Conditions The FY27 reconciliation bill will pass without any provision gating defense funds on a specific audi…	Apr 17, 2026	Open	→
Kalshi Media Deals Are Legitimacy Arbitrage, Not Journalism Kalshi's media partnerships with CNN, CNBC, and Dow Jones — executed in a four-month window after da…	Apr 4, 2026	Open	→
Prediction Market Insider Trading Enforcement Gap Persists The pattern of suspicious prediction market trades on classified military events — Venezuela, Iran,…	Apr 4, 2026	Open	→
Public Data Privatization Creates Captive Cost Transfer Defunding public data infrastructure (NOAA, BLS) doesn't eliminate the cost of producing that data —…	Apr 4, 2026	Open	→
Spire Global Government Revenue Accelerates via Captive Buyer Dynamic Spire Global's NOAA contract tripled from $3.8M to $11.1M in a single renewal cycle as DOGE cuts eli…	Apr 4, 2026	Open	→
Burford Capital's U.S. portfolio will show measurably improved metrics following the 2025 UPEPA adoption cohort Anti-SLAPP reform functions as a litigation quality filter: fee-shifting and early dismissal deter m…	Mar 31, 2026	Open	→
The anti-SLAPP protection gap persists where powerful institutional plaintiffs benefit from its absence Ten states remain without functioning anti-SLAPP laws, and their absence isn't random. They share st…	Mar 31, 2026	Open	→
China is a party-corporate conglomerate where CCP membership functions as the toll on economic activity — the anti-corruption campaign redistributes rather than dismantles The CCP controls access to capital formation, senior party relationships provide discounted access t…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Iran is a military-economic oligarchy using theocratic branding — the new Supreme Leader will not demonstrate independent authority over IRGC assets Four entities — EIKO, Astan Quds Razavi, Bonyad Mostazafan, and Khatam al-Anbia — control the majori…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Revolutionary regimes systematically produce oligarchies — the ideology is the legitimating language, the asset map is the government The mechanism that stabilizes revolutionary regimes — bribing an enforcement arm with economic turf…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Russian assets are held on conditional tenure from the state — Putin's succession will not produce genuine transfer of commanding heights to independent governance Russia is the case where oligarchy preceded ideology, exposing the model's logic most cleanly. Asset…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Section 230 repeal is structured as platform entrenchment, not accountability The bipartisan push to repeal Section 230 is framed as holding Big Tech accountable but structurally…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Venezuela is a resource cartel defended by armed loyalty networks — oil production will not recover without genuine structural change Venezuela's oil production collapsed because a military cartel consumed the institution that produce…	Mar 30, 2026	Open	→
Apollo outperforms Blue Owl by at least 20 percentage points (total return) over 12 months from March 2026 The alt manager selloff treated every firm as equally exposed to retail redemption risk. Apollo's pe…	Mar 22, 2026	Open	→
Retail BDC investors in the 2022–2026 vintage will underperform the prior institutional cycle Private credit's retail push transferred risk from institutional to retail investors at the exact mo…	Mar 22, 2026	Open	→
The 2026 federal transportation reauthorization will not restore operating assistance to large transit systems The Reagan-era capital-without-operations transit funding doctrine will survive the 2026 IIJA reauth…	Mar 22, 2026	Open	→
Micron gross margins will exceed 60% for two consecutive quarters in 2026, confirming structural HBM pricing power If the DRAM oligopoly thesis is correct, Micron is the clearest public-market proxy. HBM allocation…	Mar 18, 2026	Open	→
PJM's 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction will clear at more than 2× the 2027/2028 clearing price If the grid capacity cliff thesis is correct, PJM's capacity auctions are the most direct confirmati…	Mar 18, 2026	Open	→
The DRAM price crisis is the predictable output of a legal oligopoly, not a supply shock Three companies control 95% of global DRAM. Their simultaneous pivot to HBM — announced on public ea…	Mar 15, 2026	Open	→
Federal Ethics Architecture Cannot Reach Inbound Conflicts in Time The three federal ethics mechanisms — 18 U.S.C. § 207, state bar Rule 1.11(d), and the executive eth…	Mar 13, 2026	Open	→
AI has collapsed the conspiracy surface area required for institutional-scale attacks to one The historical detection mechanism for large-scale institutional fraud was conspiracy surface area —…	Mar 12, 2026	Open	→
The Ratepayer Protection Pledge will fail to prevent a material PJM capacity shortfall in 2027-2028 The White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge (March 4, 2026) cannot resolve a capacity shortfall driv…	Mar 11, 2026	Open	→
The US grid is heading for a discrete capacity gap beginning in 2028 The post-OBBBA pipeline collapse is not a gradual slowdown but a concentrated step-down in 2028–2029…	Mar 11, 2026	Open	→
The Hormuz closure is a structural break, not a historical analog — the market is using the wrong map Three simultaneous features distinguish this crisis from every prior oil shock: no swing producer ou…	Mar 10, 2026	Open	→
The middle-power coalition moment is real as rhetoric and fictional as strategy Carney's Davos doctrine correctly diagnoses the pathology — bilateral negotiation with hegemons mean…	Jan 20, 2026	Open	→
The AI infrastructure buildout is pricing in a demand curve that doesn't exist yet Capex is running years ahead of enterprise adoption. The gap gets papered over until it doesn't.	Feb 14, 2025	Open	→
The dollar's reserve currency status is being eroded faster than the market prices The structural shift away from dollar-denominated trade settlement is real and accelerating. The mar…	Jan 10, 2025	Open
The private credit boom ends with a liquidity crisis, not a credit event Direct lending structures create illiquidity mismatches that won't surface until a redemption cycle…	Nov 20, 2024	Confirmed

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