Working Hypothesis Working Hypothesis
All Writing

All Writing

2026
Eight Failures and a Raise — Investor Companion Subscriber Open The $480 billion in new Pentagon procurement is not a 'defense spending is up, buy defense stocks' story — that trade is done. What's less priced in is what happens when a $1.5 trillion budget flows into a department with no audit condition and a weakened watchdog.
Markets/macro Apr 23, 2026
Eight Failures and a Raise Open The Pentagon has failed its financial audit eight consecutive years. The proposed response is a $1.5 trillion defense budget — the largest single-year increase since the Korean War. The enforcement gap making this possible has been bipartisan-acknowledged and structurally unaddressed for 35 years.
Markets/macro Apr 17, 2026
The Captive Buyer Trade Subscriber Open The investor case for watching Spire Global's government contract revenue as a leading indicator of public data infrastructure privatization — and the terminal acquisition wave that follows if the captive buyer dynamic accelerates.
Markets/macro Apr 4, 2026
The Classified Alpha Open The insider trading pattern on Polymarket is not a series of isolated compliance failures. It is the predictable output of a platform architecture that rewards anyone who can move price before public information resolves — including people whose information advantage comes from classified briefings.
Markets/macro Apr 4, 2026
The Price of Truth Open Kalshi's media deals — CNN, CNBC, Dow Jones, all executed in four months after user counts fell more than 90% from their election-cycle peak — aren't journalism partnerships. They're customer acquisition arrangements that convert a contested accuracy claim into institutional legitimacy.
Markets/macro Apr 4, 2026
We Already Paid for This — Now We Have to Rent It Back Open Defunding public data infrastructure doesn't eliminate the cost of producing that data. It transfers it — to taxpayers who now pay private contractors three times as much, to benefit recipients absorbing measurement error in their Social Security checks, and to institutional investors paying premium prices for data the public once got free. BLS NOAA Spire
Markets/macro Apr 4, 2026
Investor Companion: The Plaintiff's Map Subscriber Open The anti-SLAPP protection gap isn't a civil liberties footnote. It's a market structure. What the speech-protection map implies for Burford Capital, nonprofit D&O insurance, and Energy Transfer's contingent liability.
Markets/macro Mar 31, 2026
The Plaintiff's Map Open Anti-SLAPP reform has reached forty states. The ten that remain aren't behind—they're chosen. How venue-shopping for jurisdictions without speech protections became a playbook for institutional plaintiffs. Energy Transfer North Dakota anti-SLAPP
Culture/society/ideas Mar 31, 2026
China: The Hardest Argument Open China is the most challenging case because the CCP's economic management has been genuinely successful. But the asset map — who controls the commanding heights and on what terms — reveals the same conditional tenure structure as Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. CCP Xi Jinping Jack Ma
Markets/macro Mar 30, 2026
Iran: The Asset Map Open Four entities — EIKO, Astan Quds Razavi, Bonyad Mostazafan, and Khatam al-Anbia — control the majority of Iran's economy. None answers to parliament. The theocracy label is doing less work than the asset map. IRGC EIKO Astan Quds Razavi
Markets/macro Mar 30, 2026
Russia: The Limiting Case Open Russia dispensed with ideological scaffolding faster than any other case — the oligarchy preceded the ideology. Assets are held on conditional tenure from the state, and the ideology rotates to legitimate whoever holds them. Vladimir Putin Mikhail Khodorkovsky Yukos
Markets/macro Mar 30, 2026
The Accountability Trap Open Congress is punishing Big Tech. Big Tech wrote the bill. Section 230 repeal is being framed as platform accountability and structured as platform entrenchment.
AI/tech Mar 30, 2026
They Kept the Flag, They Took the Assets Open Revolutionary regimes don't stay revolutionary — they become oligarchies. The mechanism is consistent across Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and China: bribe the enforcement arm with economic turf, and the ideology becomes a communications strategy.
Markets/macro Mar 30, 2026
Venezuela: The Cartel State Open Venezuela's oil production collapsed 83% not because of sanctions or reservoir depletion, but because a military cartel consumed the institution that produced it. Maduro's arrest tests whether removing the figurehead changes the structure. Nicolas Maduro PDVSA Manuel Quevedo
Markets/macro Mar 30, 2026
FanDuel Is Not a Transit Agency Open Pennsylvania collects enough in sports betting taxes to close SEPTA's structural gap. None of it goes to transit. The governor's fix was to raid capital funds instead. This is what 44 years of federal doctrine produces.
Culture/society/ideas Mar 22, 2026
Investor Companion: The Mechanism Reprices Open The alt manager selloff has been indiscriminate. The thesis suggests it shouldn't have been. What the private credit retail transfer thesis implies for Blackstone, Apollo, Blue Owl, Ares, and KKR — and one tracked call on permanent capital versus retail-redemption exposure.
Markets/macro Mar 22, 2026
Who Sold You This? Open Private credit promised Main Street a seat at the institutional table. The system connecting a factory worker in Albion, Illinois to a retail investor who bought a 'semi-liquid' fund reveals how the asset class transferred risk at the exact moment it became hardest to see. First Brands Group Champion BDCs
Markets/macro Mar 22, 2026
Investor Companion: The Cliff Nobody Is Modeling Subscriber Open What the US grid capacity cliff thesis means for portfolios: the bull case for dispatchable power owners, the bear case from FEOC guidance and AI efficiency, and one tracked call on PJM capacity auctions.
Markets/macro · AI/tech Mar 18, 2026
Investor Companion: The Hidden Tax on Your Next Phone Subscriber Open What the DRAM oligopoly thesis means for portfolios: the bull case, the bear case, and one tracked call on Micron margins.
Markets/macro · AI/tech Mar 18, 2026
The Hidden Tax on Your Next Phone Open AI's infrastructure boom has a bill. Someone else is paying it. Xiaomi Nvidia HBM
Markets/macro · AI/tech Mar 15, 2026
The One-Way Door Open Federal ethics law was built to watch lawyers leave government. Nobody built the door on the other side. The Percival-DHS consent decree reveals an architectural failure in three systems designed to prevent exactly this.
Culture/society/ideas Mar 13, 2026
The Last Conspiracy Open David Grimes' formula showed that conspiracy surface area was the detection mechanism for institutional-scale fraud. AI is removing it.
AI/tech Mar 12, 2026
Bring Your Own Power Open The administration's AI dominance strategy has a physics problem. The Pledge won't fix it.
Markets/macro · AI/tech Mar 11, 2026
The Cliff Nobody Is Modeling Open The renewable rollback looks like a managed slowdown. The build-out data says otherwise. US grid EPA Rhodium Group
Markets/macro · AI/tech Mar 11, 2026
The Wrong Map Open The Strait of Hormuz wasn't closed by a naval blockade. It was closed actuarially — and the consensus is using the wrong historical analogies to price the reopening.
Markets/macro Mar 10, 2026
Living Within a Better Lie Open Mark Carney's Davos doctrine names the illusion perfectly. The problem is that even its author doesn't believe political will can escape the structural constraints he's describing. Mark Carney Davos WEF
Culture/society/ideas Jan 20, 2026
2025
The consensus machine and how to get out in front of it Every market narrative follows the same arc. The edge is in knowing where you are in the cycle.
Markets/macro Mar 1, 2025
The infrastructure bet everyone is making and no one is modeling Open Capex is running ahead of enterprise demand. Here's what the gap looks like when you actually model it.
Markets/macro · AI/tech Feb 14, 2025
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